Кінець нашій «трубі»?

Валентина ПИСАНСЬКА

Повідомлення агенції “Reuters” 31 серпня про те, що “Газпром” підписав з найпотужнішими європейськими енергетичними компаніями акціонерну угоду про  будівництво до 2019 року газопроводу Північний потік 2 (Nord Stream 2), створивши міжнародний консорціум. Це викликало хвилю коментарів у зарубіжних ЗМІ. Передовсім вони наголошували на тім, що реалізація цього проекту позбавить Україну транзиту російського газу до Європейського континенту

Тим часом в Україні ця інформація упродовж 10 днів залишалося непоміченою ані в пресі, ані в урядових колах. За винятком інтернет-видання «Економічна правда», котре з посиланням на газету «Коммерсант», нарешті її оприлюднило. Утім, без коментарів фахівців чи людей державних, котрі відповідають за енергетичну політику та безпеку в Україні. Щоправда, вона викликала дуже мляву реакцію – кількох журналістів, котрі вважають цей проект … медійним «розпилом». Мовляв,  угода – ніщо інше, як продовження інформаційної війни…

gazprom_gaz_nordstream

Про що, власне, йдеться? Найбільші енергетичні компанії Британії, Франції, Німеччини та Австрії підписалися під проектом, реалізація якого коли не припиняє, то мінімізує транзит газу через Україну, яку політично всі ці держави продовжують підтримувати. Уклавши акціонерну угоду щодо трансбалтійського газогону Nord Stream 2, “Газпром” де-факто сформував блок найбільших європейських енергокомпаній, зацікавлених у поставках російського газу в обхід України. Реалізація проекту зробить Німеччину основним центром розподілу російського газу в Європі і, по суті, дозволить відмовитися від поставок через Україну та позбавить Київ транзитних платежів.

Тим часом, за даними Вікіпедії, транзитна річна спроможність української ГТС становить 288 млрд. куб. м. газу. Реально його в останні роки прокачувалося до Європи 60 –- 81 млрд. куб. м. І навіть за умови, що Україна – найдешевший транзитер вуглеводнів: близько двох доларів за тисячу кубометрів на сто кілометрів (за європейської ставки чотири долари), неважко полічити, які надходження до бюджету ми втрачаємо. Адже проектом Nord Stream 2 передбачається прокачування цим газогоном 55 млрд. куб. м. газу щороку  – майже все, що досі транспортувалося через українську ГТС.

Наміри «Газпрому» – спорудити ще один газогін, з’єднавши Росію і Німеччину та  проклавши його по дну Балтійського моря, не були таємницею. Адже переговори щодо цього почалися ще 2012 року. Але наприкінці  2014 були призупинені  за ініціативою німців, хоча Єврокомісія дала на це дозволи. За два тижні до цього “Газпром” скасував проект South Stream, а вже нинішньої весни глава «Газпрому» Олексій Міллер у Берліні заявив, що коли ЄС хоче піти від відносин взаємопроникнення і взаємозалежності в газовій сфері, то й “Газпром” змінюватиме стратегію. На ринку цю заяву сприйняли як відмову від політики виходу на кінцевого споживача в Європі, яку “Газпром” провадив упродовж останніх десяти років.

На думку оглядачів, це – принципово новий інфраструктурний проект для експорту російського природного газу, що відкриває нові перспективи співробітництва РФ та ЄС. За оцінками експертів імпорт газу в країни ЄС до 2025 року зросте на 200 млрд. куб. м. Контракти з поставок газу Північним потоком у ФРН, Францію, Данію, Великобританію укладені до 2035 року.

Я не буду зараз розмірковувати на тему подвійних стандартів у відносинах ЄС – РФ – Україна, хоч питань тут більше, ніж відповідей на них. І навіть не про те, що само по собі підписання угоди акціонерів по Nord Stream 2 свідчить: у ЄС, як і досі,  немає єдиної позиції ні щодо відносин з “Газпромом” в цілому, ні щодо найгострішої проблеми – транзиту газу через Україну. І не про те, що створення консорціуму суперечить публічній політиці передовсім Берліна, що, як і раніше, підтримує Київ. Та й не новина, що своя сорочка завжди ближча до власного тіла…

Але я б хотіла все-таки знати, чи Nord Stream 2 – лише інформаційний «розпил» Росії, як стверджують деякі ура-патріоти, і кінець нашій трубі все-таки не настане, чи проблема існує? Якщо не існує, то уряд, чи авторитетні люди, відповідальні у державі за енергетичну безпеку, мали б пояснити, що Україні у зв»язку зі створенням міжнародного консорціуму нічого не загрожує. А якщо це не так, то чи має наш уряд, як нині прийнято говорити, план «Б», «Ц» чи  «Д», який убезпечить нас від величезних втрат у разі відмови «Газпрому» від транспортування вуглеводнів нашою ГТС? А що така загроза все-таки існує, то про це свідчать заяви керівників газового монополіста про намір не продовжувати контракт на транзит блакитного палива до Європи, термін якого спливає 2020 року…

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